There is no reason to fear that sites cannot still make money with advertising. That’s because there are already two kinds of highly profitable online ads: contextual ads, based on the content being shown on screen, and behavioral ads, based on personal data collected about the person viewing the ad. Behavioral ads work by tracking your online behavior and compiling a profile about you using your internet activities (and even your offline activities in some cases) to send you targeted ads.He argues that the creepiness of behavioral ads isn't necessary for sites to make money from ads. Below the fold I look at the evidence that Weinberg is right.
There is more recent evidence in Timothy B. Lee's Why some experts are skeptical of Google’s new Web privacy strategy:
Google's post was blasted by a pair of Princeton computer scientists who have long advocated for stricter browser privacy protections. ...In It Isn't About The Technology I quoted from Natasha Lomas' The case against behavioral advertising is stacking up, based on research by Carnegie Mellon University professor of IT and public policy, Alessandro Acquisti, which showed that:
The researchers disputed Google's claim that nuking tracking cookies would undermine the economic foundation of the online advertising industry. They point out that after the EU adopted the General Data Protection Regulation, the New York Times discontinued its use of tracking cookies in Europe. The Grey Lady shifted to using contextual and geographic ad targeting—and its ad revenue hasn't suffered as a result.
behaviourally targeted advertising had increased the publisher’s revenue but only marginally. At the same time they found that marketers were having to pay orders of magnitude more to buy these targeted ads, despite the minuscule additional revenue they generated for the publisher.Weinberg points to other evidence that behavioral ads aren't worth the extra cost:
“What we found was that, yes, advertising with cookies — so targeted advertising — did increase revenues — but by a tiny amount. Four per cent. In absolute terms the increase in revenues was $0.000008 per advertisment,” Acquisti told the hearing. “Simultaneously we were running a study, as merchants, buying ads with a different degree of targeting. And we found that for the merchants sometimes buying targeted ads over untargeted ads can be 500% times as expensive.”
This shift back to contextual advertising need not reduce profitability. A recent poll by Digiday of publishing executives found that 45 percent of them saw no significant benefit from behavioral ads, and 23 percent said they actually caused a decline in revenue.And that Google's search engine doesn't use them:
What about compliance costs? Companies are quickly realizing that good privacy practices are a boon for business. People increasingly want to reduce their digital footprint and so choose companies that help them do so. Companies with good privacy practices in their DNA do not face significant compliance costs.
When you enter a search request in Google, it displays ads that are relevant to that particular search, without needing to collect information about your search, location, purchase or browsing history. However, Google still collects all this information because it also powers non-search behavioral ads across the whole internet, on more than two million websites and apps that use Google’s ad services and on Google’s non-search properties, such as YouTube.So Google's data collection creates a "premium" product that they can sell to marketers who don't believe the research showing that it isn't worth buying. As I wrote in Advertising Is A Bubble:
The surveillance economy, and thus the stratospheric valuations of:Frederik and Martijn's article is a must-read, full of pithy quotes such as:
Facebook and Alphabet (Google’s parent), which rely on advertising for, respectively, 97% and 88% of their sales.depend on the idea that targeted advertising, exploiting as much personal information about users as possible, results in enough increased sales to justify its cost.This is despite the fact the both experimental research and the experience of major publishers and advertisers show the opposite. Now, The new dot com bubble is here: it’s called online advertising by Jesse Frederik and Maurits Martijn provides an explanation for this disconnect.
Marketers are often most successful at marketing their own marketing.Later in the same post I pointed out that:
The fact that targeting doesn't work shouldn't be a surprise to any Web user. Two universal experiences:But banning tracking, or at least requiring it to be opt-in, which would both be good things to do, wouldn't address the fundamental problem I outlined in Google's Fenced Garden:
But note that the ad platforms don't care. They can't be bothered to enhance their targeting algorithms to exploit what they know. Why? They get paid in both cases.
- I buy something on Amazon. For days afterwards, many of the ads that make it past my ad blockers are for the thing I just bought.
- For weeks now, about half the videos I watch on YouTube start by showing me exactly the same ad for Shen Yun. Every time I see it I click "skip ad", so YouTube should have been able after all this time to figure out that I'm not interested and show me a different ad.
So we can make the following statements:Weinberg's op-ed is a good read, and he is right as far as it goes. But, for obvious reasons, he doesn't want to point to the conflict of interest underlying all advertiser-funded search engines.
- Search is essential to the usefulness of the Web, and thus the Internet.
- US Web search is dominated by a single search engine, and there is no realistic prospect of displacing it.
- The dominant search engine is funded by advertising, which involves a fundamental conflict of interest; the results users see are not the best answers to their query but those that are most profitable for the search engine.
- The most profitable searches reflect the interests of the wealthiest companies (and of the politicians they fund). Accurate information about "controversial" issues, such as climate change, becomes hard to find.
Mayank Parma's Privacy-focused search engine DuckDuckGo is growing fast shows Weinberg's strategy is working:
"DuckDuckGo, the privacy-focused search engine, announced that August 2020 ended in over 2 billion total searches via its search platform.
While Google remains the most popular search engine, DuckDuckGo has gained a great deal of traction in recent months as more and more users have begun to value their privacy on the internet.
DuckDuckGo saw over 2 billion searches and 4 million app/extension installations, and the company also said that they have over 65 million active users. DuckDuckGo could shatter its old traffic record if the same growth trend continues."
Catalin Cimpanu reports that DuckDuckGo surpasses 100 million daily search queries for the first time:
"The achievement comes after a period of sustained growth the company has been seeing for the past two years, and especially since August 2020, when the search engine began seeing more than 2 billion search queries a month on a regular basis. The numbers are small in comparison to Google's 5 billion daily search queries but it's a positive sign that users are looking for alternatives."
DuckDuckGo reports continued rapid growth:
"DuckDuckGo has been profitable since 2014 with revenues now $100M+/yr. In late 2020, we completed a $100M+ mainly secondary investment from new & existing investors."
"Spurred by the increase in DuckDuckGo app usage, over the last 12 months our monthly search traffic increased 55% and we grew to become the #2 search engine on mobile in many countries including in the U.S., Canada, Australia, and the Netherlands. ... We don’t track our users so we can’t say for sure how many we have, but based on market share estimates, download numbers, and national surveys, we believe there are between 70-100 million DuckDuckGo users."
Of course, their market share is still only in the low single digits.
Lawrence Abrams' Privacy-focused search engine DuckDuckGo grew by 46% in 2021 continues the good news:
"In 2020, DuckDuckGo received 23.6 billion total search queries and achieved a daily average of 79 million search queries by the end of December.
In 2021, DuckDuckGo received 34.6 billion total search queries so far and currently has an average of 100 million search queries per day, showing a 46.4% growth for the year.
While DuckDuckGo's growth is considerable, it still only has 2.53% of the total market share, with Yahoo at 3.3%, Bing at 6.43%, and Google holding a dominant share of 87.33% of search engine traffic in the USA."
European watchdog: All data collected about users via ad-consent popup system must be deleted by Jude Karabus reports on a victory for the Irish Council for Civil Liberties:
"All data collected through the Transparency & Consent Framework (TCF) must now be deleted by the 1,000+ firms that pay international digital marketing and advertising association IAB Europe to use it. This includes Google's, Amazon's and Microsoft's online advertising businesses.
This is according to a decision handed down today by the Belgian data protection authority [PDF] finding that the "consent solution" fails to properly request consent, and relies on a lawful basis (legitimate interest) that is not permissible because of the severe risk posed by the online advertising tracking under Article 5(1)a, and Article 6 of the GDPR."
If this decision stands it will be very hard for real-time bidding for ad space in Europe to continue to use behavioral data.
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