Self-Own

Credit: XKCD

The Cambridge dictionary defines the verb to bullshit as:

a rude word meaning to try to persuade someone or make them admire you by saying things that are not true

The essence of successful bullshit is that it should be both plausible and presented authoritatively. Bullshitters are always tempted to buttress the appearance of authority by including actual evidence rather than just their interpretation of the evidence, but this is often a fatal mistake. Below the fold I discuss a classic example from MAGA's campaign to demonize immigrants.

@GabeGuidarini tweeted:

𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐦𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐢𝐦𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐚𝐧𝐭 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐲𝐨𝐮’𝐥𝐥 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐝 𝐨𝐧 𝐦𝐚𝐬𝐬 𝐢𝐦𝐦𝐢𝐠𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐨 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐔𝐧𝐢𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬:

In 1924, President Calvin Coolidge signed the Johnson-Reed Immigration Act, which halted mass immigration into the United States.

The act completely stopped immigration from Asia, and set strict quotas on immigration from other places including Europe.

Wages began to dramatically increase.

By the 1950s, America reached the peak of its economic and industrial might. Economic inequality was low. Large businesses and workers alike were prospering.

Then, in 1965 the Hart-Cellar Immigration Act was signed by President LBJ, opening the floodgates and allowing for massive unchecked immigration, especially from the global south.

Immediately, income growth and wage growth for the bottom 90% of earners came to an abrupt halt.

Soon after, the incomes for the top 1% of earners skyrocketed, leading to the massive wealth inequality in America we see today.

The political left attributes this to simply a lack of proper taxation and regulation, but that’s mainly not the case.

Mass immigration has allowed for modern scab labor to become the norm, allowing large companies to pay lower wages for foreign migrants who demand less.

The loser? America’s middle class, which has been deteriorating for more than half a century now.

When you see wealthy technocrats argue in favor of mass “skilled” immigration, keep this in mind.

Who is GabeGuidarini?

Ohio Field Rep @TPAction_. Comms @OhioCRs. President @UDRepublicans. Fmr Acting President @uscollegegop.

He is a Republican operative. His chain of causation sounds convincing, doesn't it?

But he made the bullshitter's fatal mistake. He included this graph. Lets annotate it. First we have Guidarini's claim that:

In 1924, President Calvin Coolidge signed the Johnson-Reed Immigration Act, which halted mass immigration into the United States.

The act completely stopped immigration from Asia, and set strict quotas on immigration from other places including Europe.

Wages began to dramatically increase.

Lets put 1924 on the graph.

Whose wages had the dramatic increase in 1924? Right, the 1%. Whose wages were flat from 1924 until the Great Depression? Right, the bottom 90%. Guidarini is just wrong. The dramatic increase in the wages of the bottom 90% happened in 1940, 16 years later. Can you think of a cause for the dramatic increase in 1940? It surely wasn't the Johnson-Reed Immigration Act of 1924.

Second, we have Guidarini's claim that:

By the 1950s, America reached the peak of its economic and industrial might.

If America's "economic and industrial might" peaked in the 50s, why did the incomes of the bottom 90% continue rising until 1973?

Third we have Guidarini's claim that:

Then, in 1965 the Hart-Cellar Immigration Act was signed by President LBJ, opening the floodgates and allowing for massive unchecked immigration, especially from the global south.

Immediately, income growth and wage growth for the bottom 90% of earners came to an abrupt halt.

Lets put 1965 on the graph.

Can you see the income growth for the bottom 90% come to an immediate halt? No, wages continued rising as they had been since 1940 until 1973, another 8 years. Did the Hart-Cellar Immigration Act of 1965 cause wages to flatten in 1973? Whose income flat-lined after 1965 for a decade and a half? Right, the 1%.

Lastly, we have Guidarini's claim that soon after 1965:

the incomes for the top 1% of earners skyrocketed, leading to the massive wealth inequality in America we see today.

Can you see when the "incomes for the top 1% of earners skyrocketed"? That's right, it was in 1985, so "soon" means 20 years! And can you guess who was President of the US, and from what party, then? Right, it was a certain Ronald Reagan, a Republican.