AI's PR Problem

J.P. Morgan hits photographer with cane

This is just a brief post to explain to my old boss, Eric Schmidt, why he and his ilk are getting booed at college commencements, and why laws against data centers are getting passed. The explanation is below the fold.

Wrench Attacks

XKCD #538

A year ago I wrote The Risks Of HODL-ing sparked by Mitch Moxley's They Stole a Quarter-Billion in Crypto and Got Caught Within a Month. Moxley recounts the kidnapping of Veer Chetal's parents to persuade him to hand over his share of the loot:

the Lamborghini was suddenly rammed from behind by a white Honda Civic. At the same time, a white Ram ProMaster work van cut in front, trapping the Chetals. According to a criminal complaint filed after the incident, a group of six men dressed in black and wearing masks emerged from their vehicles and forced the Chetals from their car, dragging them toward the van’s open side door.

Below the fold I look at Bloomberg updates from last week on why the crypto-bros are having to spend vast sums on defending against the threat of HODL-ing.

Talk for Stanford's EE 292J

Via John Markoff, I was invited to a conversation with Jonathan Dotan and the students of his EE292J course entitled Designing for Authenticity. Below the fold are my brief introductory remarks, and some notes for the discussion.

Flooded Zones Part 2

Source

This is the promised follow-on to Flooded Zones Part 1, which discussed the Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attack being mounted by AI against the scholarly publication system. By reducing the cost of generating and submitting a paper or a review, AI has caused a massive increase in the quantity and a significant decrease in the quality of submissions to a system that was already vastly overloaded.

Below the fold I look at AI-enabled DDoS attacks against two other even more important areas; software security and political discourse (as shown in the overview image).

Flooded Zones Part 1

Tom Cowap
CC-BY-SA 4.0

Three years ago in Flooding The Zone With Shit, my first post on the AI bubble, I wrote:

My immediate reaction to the news of ChatGPT was to tell friends "at last, we have solved the Fermi Paradox". It wasn't that I feared being told "This mission is too important for me to allow you to jeopardize it", but rather that I assumed that civilizations across the galaxy evolved to be able to implement ChatGPT-like systems, which proceeded to irretrievably pollute their information environment, preventing any further progress.

The post title was a notorious quote from Steve Bannon. Below the fold, I look into scholarly publication, the first of three areas whose zones are currently being flooded with AI output in what can be considered DDoS (Distributed Denial of Service attacks:

A distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attack occurs when multiple systems flood the bandwidth or resources of a targeted system, usually one or more web servers.

A subsequent post will examine two more flood zones, political discourse and software security.

The Permissionless Catch-22

Potential Attack Target

Suppose some genre of content is under attack by powerful adversaries. Lets take political satire as a thought experiment in which powerful politicians are attacking sites and Web archives hosting it by sending bogus DMCA takedowns, suing for defamation, buying up their hosting platforms, getting their flying monkeys to flood them with spam, and so on. Below the fold I discuss the problem facing the defense.

Dormant Digital Assets

PsiQuantum's computer

Four and a half years ago I wrote The $65B Prize about the potential reward for developing a "sufficiently powerful quantum computer" capable of cracking Bitcoin's encryption. It was based on work by Aggarwal et al, who were then projecting it would happen between 2029 and 2044. The $65B was the notional value of the wallet containing the million Bitcoin Satoshi Nakamoto mined originally.i But I noted that:

Chainalysis estimates that about 20% of all Bitcoins have been "lost", or in other words are sitting in wallets whose keys are inaccessible. That is around another 3.6 million stranded Bitcoin or at the current "price" about $234B.

So the potential prize was almost $300B.

Nearly a year ago I followed up with The $740B Prize. There are two reasons why the prize was then bigger but is now smaller than that:

• Bitcoin's "price" had then increased from about $65K to around $107K, but it is now around $76K.
• Because the "market cap" of Michael Saylor's Strategy was 1.6 times the "market cap" of its stash of Bitcoin, it was possible to use Saylor's algorithm to amplify the prize. But the factor has decreased from 1.6 to 0.81, so the algorithm no longer works.

But the threat to Bitcoin, and other cryptocurrencies, is far worse than I described in either of these two posts. The date is closer and the range of threats much broader. Follow me below the fold for the details.