|Cost vs. Kryder rate|
|2014 cost/byte projection|
The red lines are projections at the industry roadmap's 20% and a less optimistic 10%. [The graph] shows three things:
- The slowing started in 2010, before the floods hit Thailand.
- Disk storage costs in 2014, two and a half years after the floods, were more than 7 times higher than they would have been had Kryder's Law continued at its usual pace from 2010, as shown by the green line.
- If the industry projections pan out, as shown by the red lines, by 2020 disk costs per byte will be between 130 and 300 times higher than they would have been had Kryder's Law continued.
|Backblaze average $/GB|
This is a big deal. As I've said many times:
no realistic prospect of a technological discontinuity that would change this.