3D Flash - not as cheap as chips

Chris Mellor has an interesting piece at The Register pointing out that while 3D NAND flash may be dense, its going to be expensive.

The reason is the enormous number of processing steps per wafer - between 96 and 144 deposition layers for the three leading 3D NAND flash technologies. Getting non-zero yields from that many steps involves huge investments in the fab:

Samsung, SanDisk/Toshiba, and Micron/Intel have already announced +$18bn investment for 3D NAND.

• Samsung’s new Xi’an, China, 3D NAND fab involves a +$7bn total capex outlay
• Micron has outlined a $4bn spend to expand its Singapore Fab 10

This compares with Seagate and Western Digital’s capex totalling ~$4.3 bn over the past three years.

Chris has this chart, from Gartner and Stifel, comparing the annual capital expenditure per TB of storage of NAND flash and hard disk. Each TB of flash contains at least 50 times as much capital as a TB of hard disk, which means it will be a lot more expensive to buy.

PS - "as cheap as chips" is a British usage.