The $740B Prize

Forty-two months ago I wrote The $65B Prize citing Divesh Aggarwal et al's 2019 paper Quantum attacks on Bitcoin, and how to protect against them. They noted that:

the elliptic curve signature scheme used by Bitcoin is much more at risk, and could be completely broken by a quantum computer as early as 2027, by the most optimistic estimates.

It is time to re-visit the "optimistic estimates", so follow me below the fold.

The Dawn Of Nvidia's Technology

Because Nvidia became one of the most valuable companies in the world, there are now two books explaining its rise and extolling the genius of Jensen Huang, Tae Kim's The Nvidia Way: Jensen Huang and the making of a tech giant, and Steven Witt's The Thinking Machine: Jensen Huang, Nvidia, and the World's Most Coveted Microchip. For the later 90% of the history I wasn't there, so I won't comment on their treatment of that part. But for the pre-history at Sun Microsystems and the first 10% of the history I was there. Kim's account of the business side of this era is detailed and, although it was three decades ago, matches my recollections.

Witt's account of the business side of the early history is much less detailed and some of the details don't match what I remember.

But as regards the technical aspects of this early history it appears that neither author really understood the reasons for the two kinds of innovation we made; the imaging model and the I/O architecture. Witt writes (Page 31):

The first time I asked Priem about the architecture of the NV1, he spoke uninterrupted for twenty-seven minutes.

Below the fold, I try to explain what Curtis was talking about for those 27 minutes. It will take me quite a long post.

Here There Are Blueberries

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On Sunday 4^th May Vicky & I saw Berkeley Rep's production of a thought-provoking new play by Moisés Kaufman, Amanda Gronich, and Tectonic Theater, the team behind The Laramie Project:

about the reaction to the 1998 murder of gay University of Wyoming student Matthew Shepard in Laramie, Wyoming. The murder was denounced as a hate crime and brought attention to the lack of hate crime laws in various states, including Wyoming.

An example of verbatim theatre, the play draws on hundreds of interviews conducted by the theatre company with inhabitants of the town, company members' own journal entries, and published news reports.

The new play, Here There Are Blueberries, is on tour after a 2022 premiere at the La Jolla Playhouse and a 2024 run at the New York Theatre Workshop. Vinson Cunningham reviewed the New York production in The Chilling Truth Pictured in “Here There Are Blueberries”:

There’s something awful about a lost picture. Maybe it’s because of a disparity between your original hope and the result: you made the photograph because you intended to keep it, and now that intention—artistic, memorial, historical—is fugitive, on the run toward ends other than your own. The picture, gone forever, possibly revived by strange eyes, will never again mean quite what you thought it would.

The play dramatizes the process archivists at the US Holocaust Memorial Museum went through to investigate an album of photographs taken at Auschwitz. Photographs from Auschwitz are extremely rare because the Nazis didn't want evidence of what happened there to survive.

Below the fold I discuss the play and some of the thoughts it provoked that are relevant to digital preservation.

The Risks Of HODL-ing

Lamborghini Urus
Alexander Migl, CC BY-SA 4.0

Traditionally, the big risk in HODL-ing cryptocurrencies has been their volatility. Fortunately, now the US government is all-in on cryptocurrencies, this risk is greatly reduced. Progress moon-wards is virtually guaranteed, so it is reasonable to invest a small part of your portfolio into Lamborghinis. HODL-ers can rest easy while the rest of the coins in their wallets appreciate because they are protected by strong cryptography (at least until the advent of a sufficiently powerful quantum computer). But progress moon-wards exacerbates some other risks to HODL-ers, as I explain below the fold.

Who Is Mining Bitcoin?

BTC "price"

It is just over a year since One Heck Of A Halvening, when Tether had pumped the Bitcoin "price" up to $73,094 the month before. Thanks to The Cryptocurrency Industry's Unprecedented Election Spending it was pumped over $100K and is now around $92K. The security of the Bitcoin blockchain depends upon Proof-of-Work, the idea being that it is more expensive to attack than any possible gains. Thus it is important that miners both spend a lot of money to mine coins, and that they can make a return on their investment in doing so. Now it is time to take a look below the fold at how the miners are doing post-Halvening.

Going Out With A Bang

In 1.5C Here We Come I criticized people like Eric Schmidt who said that:

the artificial intelligence boom was too powerful, and had too much potential, to let concerns about climate change get in the way.

Schmidt, somewhat fatalistically, said that “we’re not going to hit the climate goals anyway,”

Salomé Balthus
Uwe Hauth, CC BY-SA 4.0

In January for a Daily Mail article, Miriam Kuepper interviewed Salomé Balthus a "high-end escort and author from Berlin" who works the World Economic Forum. Balthus reported attitudes that clarify why "3C Here We Come" is more likely. The article's full title is:

What the global elite reveal to Davos sex workers: High-class escort spills the beans on what happens behind closed doors - and how wealthy 'know the world is doomed, so may as well go out with a bang'

Below the fold I look into a wide range of evidence that Balthus' clients were telling her the truth.

Cliff Lynch RIP

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Last Tuesday Cliff Lynch delivered an abbreviated version of his traditional closing summary and bon voyage to CNI's 2025 Spring Membership Meeting via Zoom from his sick-bed. Last Thursday night he died, still serving as Executive Director. CNI has posted In Memoriam: Clifford Lynch.

Cliff impacted a wide range of areas. The best overview is Mike Ashenfelder's 2013 profile of Cliff Lynch in the Library of Congress' Digital Preservation Pioneer series, which starts:

Clifford Lynch is widely regarded as an oracle in the culture of networked information. Lynch monitors the global information ecosystem for cultural trends and technological developments. He ponders their variables, interdependencies and influencing factors. He confers with colleagues and draws conclusions. Then he reports his observations through lectures, conference presentations and writings. People who know about Lynch pay close attention to what he has to say.

Lynch is a soft-spoken man whose work, for more than thirty years, has had an impact — directly or indirectly — on the computer, information and library science communities.

Below the fold are some additional personal notes on Cliff's contributions.